Edwards Announces

Finally! Something more exciting than endless lists of Exploratory Committees. Today, December 28, John Edwards announced he is running for president. He did it in an unusual place, New Orleans' Ninth Ward, which was completely destroyed during Hurricane Katrina. Edwards pledged to do five things:

• Guarantee everyone health care
• End Poverty
• Lead the Fight Against Global Warming
• Breaking the American and World Addiction to Oil
• Providing Moral Leadership: Starting with getting out of Iraq

These will work very well in Iowa, where Edwards is loved and "Oil addiction" is code for "ethanol production". Iowa is made of corn, so naturally he does well there.

Early Iowa Poll Shows Surprising Results

KCCI-TV/Research 2000 has conducted a poll of Iowans asking them for whom they will vote in the 2008 caucuses. The Democratic voters chose this:

Barack Obama.................22%
John Edwards..................23%
Hillary Clinton................10%
Al Gore.............................7%
John Kerry.......................5%
Dennis Kucinich..............4%
Wesley Clark...................4%
A bunch of people with less than 1%.

Prediction: Vilsack gets 10%. Gore doesn't run: Hillary gets 5% and Obama gets 2%. Kerry doesn't run and Hillary gets his 5%. Edwards loses 8%: 6% goes to Hillary and 2% goes to Obama. Obama loses 5-7% to Hillary. Undecideds move to Hillary and Obama. Final Result:
Hillary Clinton...............38%
Barack Obama...............25%
John Edwards................15%
Tom Vilsack...................10%
Dennis Kucinich..............4%
Wesley Clark...................3%
Joe Biden.........................3%
Others with less than 1%.

Republicans chose:
John McCain...................27%
Rudy Giuliani..................26%
Mitt Romney...................9%
Newt Gingrich.................7%
Condi Rice........................4%
Others with less than 1%.

Prediction: Romney's stock will double without hurting anyone, McCain's stock will fall 5-10%, Condi Rice won't run and her 4% will go to Romney. Romney and McCain take 10% each of Giuliani's showing. Final Result:
Mitt Romney....................36%
John McCain....................32%
Rudy Giuliani...................10%
Newt Gingrich.................10%
Sam Brownback...............5%
Mike Huckabee................5%
George Pataki..................1%

Gilmore Files

Former Governor Jim Gilmore (R-VA) announced that he will run for president in 2008. The move caught everyone off guard, as most were expecting he would reseek the governorship in 2009. Expect him to do well in the South, and make a minor impact. He comes in behind Sam Brownback in the rankings.

New Jersey Passes Gay Rights Law

12.14.06
The New Jersey State legislature passed a bill that would grant gay couples equal rights. It was passed overwhelmingly in both houses, and Governor Jon Corzine (D-NJ) announced he would sign it.

Prediction: When Massachusetts did something similar, people wrote it off. With another state following suit, expect a few more states to legalize gay marriage and grant them rights within the next few years. It will be an issue in 2008.

Senator Johnson Has Stroke

12.14.06

Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) suffered what looked like a stroke while giving an interview. He was taken to the hospital, where he was placed under intensive care. He had emergency brain surgery that night. If he is unable to serve, the governor of South Dakota, Republican Mike Rounds, will appoint the next senator. If Rounds was to appoint a republican, it would tie the senate and (because of vice president Cheney) effectively hand it back to the republicans.

Kucinich Announces Candidacy

12.12.06
No explanation needed.

Romney Nailed on Gay Marriage

12.10.06

In 1994 Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) wrote a letter to the log cabin republicans. In it, he makes several statements that imply his support in gay marriage, especially the federal "don't ask, don't tell" policy when he wrote it, "will ultimately lead to gays and lesbians being able to serve openly and honestly in our nation’s military". Conservative leaders immediately began to express doubts. However, he did get the endorsements of Missouri Governor Matt Blunt and Florida State House Speaker Allan Bense.

Brownback Starts Exploratory Committee

12.04.06

Jeez, I'm getting really tired of all these exploratory committees. At least this one is kind of interesting: on Brownback's steering committee are Former Major League Baseball Commissioner Bowie Kuhn, Domino's (pizza chain) founder Tom Monaghan, and the Reverened Frank Pavone, head of Priests for Life. Daniel Owen of ovaloffice2008.com pointed out that it sounds like a fun-filled weekend. Brilliant Observation.

Bayh Starts Exploratory Committee

12.03.06
Evan Bayh, preparing to position himself as the best alternative to Hillary Clinton, defended his position, saying, "As the people get to know me, I think we'll do very well ... Is this a little bit like David and Goliath? A little bit, but as I recall, David did OK." Bayh would later drop out after it appeared that Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) would run. Obama has yet to announce as of 12/28/06.

Daschle, Barely In, Is Out

12.03.06

There have been murmurs in the blogosphere of a return for former Senator Tom Daschle (D-SD), but he squashed the rumors once and for all, saying, "I've had a lot of encouragement" but "...I will not seek the Presidency of the United States." Either way, being such a nobody from such a small state, he would not last long.

Tancredo Embarrasses Himself in Florida

11.29.06

Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-CO) made some very foolish comments in the battleground state of Florida on the 29th. He compared Miami to a "Third-world country" and the people went berserk. Governor Jeb Bush demanded Tancredo apologize. Instead, Tancredo wrote a fiery response, defending his comments and criticized the governor for being "naive". He may have guts, but he doesn't have brains, this Tancredo.

Carter Obsessed With Gore

11.29.06
Former President and Nobel Laureate Jimmy Carter (D-GA) said on Hardball with Chris Matthews that his favorite candidate is definitely Al Gore (D-TN). Supposedly Carter has been bothering Gore to run, although he has already said he will pass on the race.

Editorial:
Gore is the strongest Democrat. He deserves the presidency, having won it before. He comes without the negative connotation of Hillary Clinton but with presidential campaign experience before. He ran such a bungled campaign, and he still won the popular vote, that if he tries to fix his mistakes of the past, he will run the strongest campaign.

Frist Gives Up

11.29.06
Outgoing Senator Bill Frist (R-TN), who has been preparing for a 2008 white house run for 12 years, has decided to pass on the race. This far into the campaign season, he had expected to have support, but it appears that his lack of charisma and loyal followers was hurting him a lot. On the 29th, he pulled the plug.

Hoyer is Majority Leader, Lott Becomes Whip

11.15.06-11.16.06
Incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) supported John Murtha (D-PA) for the position of Majority Leader, but ethical issues arising over Murtha caused the House Dem caucus to choose former minority whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) instead. Pelosi made a smart political move, getting the alliance of Murtha from gratitude, and Hoyer because she's the boss. Very clever, Pelosi. . . The Republicans chose Trent Lott (R-MS) to be their next senate minority whip. Yes, the same Trent Lott that made the racist comments at Strom Thurmond's 100th Birthday party. Yes, the same Trent Lott that was kicked out of leadership for the same. He's back with the same weird hair.

EDITORIAL:
YUCK!!!!!

Thompson Starts Exploratory Committee

11.15.06

Way back in February when I started the blog, I singled out Tommy Thompson as the dark horse to watch. He's got a lot of experience and he's from a good state. I put him at 4th. Now things are different. Romney is serious, and so is Giuliani. Gingrich came out of no where. Two weeks after this Frist will drop out. However, I'd still put him at fifth or sixth. I'll put up full rankings a little later, as well as a poll. Ron Gunzberger of Politics1.com isn't nuts about his chances, but ovaloffice2008.com ranks him at 6. Gingrich is #4, so he comes in at 5 or 6. Overall chances of getting the nomination: maybe 4 or 5 %, but that's better than a bunch of others: Tancredo, Hunter, and Pataki to name a few, and arguably Sam Brownback. It doesn't really matter.

McCain Sets Up Exploratory Committee

11.13.06

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) confirmed on TV that he would set up his exploratory committee. No surprise here.

Mehlman Quits, Bush Picks Martinez

11. 13.06

RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman resigned his position after losing both houses of congress and being outed as gay (Melhman led the fight against gay rights). President Bush picked Florida Senator and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Mel Martinez. Clearly, even after Hispanic voters turned out in droves for democrats in 2006, the Republican party still thinks it can win their votes.

Giuliani Starts Exploratory Committee

11.14.06

Rudy Giuliani, expected by many to pass on this race and accept the vice-presidential slot, filed his exploratory committee. Although many still insist he will decide against a run, a McCain-Romney-Giuliani (and possibly)-Gingrich fight would turn very nasty, as all are so vulnerable to attack by the base.

Vilsack Announces

11.8.06
The almost completely unknown Governor Tom Vilsack (D-IA) announced the day after the midterm elections that he will be a candidate for president in 2008. Although he may seem to be a major contender as Iowa has the first caucuses, he scores a meager 10% in most polls. For now, assume he does okay in Iowa and then disappears completely in New Hampshire.

Duncan Hunter Announces. Nobody Cares.

10.29.06
Duncan Hunter announced he was running for president. He was then the House Armed Services Committee Chair. Now he is the Ranking Minority member. It doesn't matter. After serving 14 terms in congress, nobody has ever heard of him. Expect him to have an impact of exactly zero on the primary: assuming he doesn't do the smart thing and just pull the plug.

Feingold Drops Out

To the dismay of many liberal bloggers, Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) announced that he will not seek the presidency. An outspoken liberal voice in the senate, Feingold wanted to be a part of the new democratic majority. It would always have been an uphill battle, and his entry would have set the blogosphere on fire: right underneath Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Warner Drops Out - Two Months Ago

Hi yall. On October 12th Mark Warner announced that he will not be a candidate for president in 2008. In protest, (but mainly to follow the midterms) I abandoned the blog for two months. Coming back, so much has happened. The fields have shifted. I will try to recreate what has happened. I've got a lot of work. But first . . .

THE DEMOCRATS RETOOK CONGRESS!
6 SENATE SEATS
30 HOUSE SEATS
6 GOVERNORSHIPS
THE MAJORITY OF STATE LEGISLATURES
Sorry. I followed these for 18 months. I knew every candidate in every race, their bios, issue positions, and poll showings in every poll you can think of and a bunch you can't. We did it.

I am not usually partisan like this, but once every ten years or so I have a right to brag.

O'Reilly Behind Romney

In a new development, Fox News host Bill O'Reilly said that Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is his favorite republican against Hillary Clinton in 2008. Although Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are winning in every poll, Romney is positioning himself as the anti-McCain, and it may well pay off. One of the interesting parts of this story is that all the republicans are acting as if Hillary Clinton is definitely going to get the
Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)
nomination. As I have pointed out in the past, she would not be

the strongest candidate. That distinction would fall to Mark Warner or John Edwards. It is quite likely that Clinton will either not run for or not win the nomination, and it is a fascinating tactic on the part of the republicans to pretend that she will definitely win. It is a strange and unusual voter intimidation tactic, because usually parties don't try to mess with the outcome of another party's primary. This suggests that they think that the only Democrat they can beat is Hillary Clinton, and their only hope is to get people who would have voted for Warner or Edwards to stay home. They have also taken it one step further. For months now, conservative pundits have never missed an opportunity to point out that Hillary would be an extremely dangerous opponent. Think what you may, I just don't buy that. If they were so afraid of her they would be discounting her. It's a sign of their fear of the rest of the democratic field that they pretend they don't exist. Get the real article here.

Warner Talks Homeland Security in Las Vegas

Wednesday, Former Governor Mark Warner, Democrat of Virginia, campaigned in Nevada, giving a speech in Las Vegas where he said that the cuts in the city’s homeland security funding was result of, “Misplaced priorities.” He also campaigned for the democratic nominee for governor, Dina Titus. Nevada will have the second caucuses in 2008. Interested? Find out more here.

Warner Gives Interview in Second Life

Mark Warner gave an interview last week on the virtual reality game Second Life. Although some poked fun at his performance, others say it is a good political move, as thousands play second life, and might not have heard of him. Read all about it here.

Richardson Stock Soars

In 1996, three Red Cross workers were kidnapped, and then UN embassador Bill Richardson (D-NM) went and arranged for their release. Ten years later, Richardson (who is now governor of New Mexico and considered to be a likely candidate in 2008) showed that he could still work diplomatic magic. He organized the release of a kidnapped Chicago Tribune reporter. Get the full analysis here.

Huckabee and Falwell

Governor Mike Huckabee, Republican of Arkansas, is emerging as a leading conservative alternative to McCain and Giuliani. A very talented motivational speaker, he has defended Wal-Mart recently, and traveled around promoting his name ID. The Rev. Jerry Falwell, whose University John McCain spoke at a few months ago has just opened a new million square foot church. Huckabee, who used to head the Arkansas Southern Baptist Convention, is going to be a keynote speaker at a convention of pastors Falwell has set up. Huckabee, himself an ordained Baptist minister, will gain a lot of traction, because religious leaders can be a huge influence when it comes to voting. Watch for Huckabee’s poll results to double in the next few months. Read more here.

Bill Clinton Scouting Out Missouri

Former President Bill Clinton is campaigning in Missouri for democratic senate candidate Claire McCaskill. Although he raised over 1 million dollars for McCaskill, many say he is paving the way for Hillary’s potential run in 2008. Get the full story here.

McCain-Lieberman?

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)
It may seem outrageous, but it makes political sense. Joe Lieberman recently lost renomination for his senate seat to Ned Lamont, and he has filed to run as an independent. Despite the fact that most major democrats have endorsed Lamont, Lieberman is leading by large amounts in most polls. For the past ten years, he has voted with the democrats,
1. To get Gore's VP pick in 2000 Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT)
2. To get the Nomination in 2004 (which he didn't)
3. To win renomination in the Senate (which he didn't either)

During these times, he has voted more consistently than he would have liked with the democrats so he could secure these opportunities. If he wins as an Independent (which is very likely) then he will be able to side with the republicans on borderline issues.

If John McCain wins the nomination, he could pick Lieberman as his VP choice because they would be competitive in the East where Bush-Cheney was not, and he would still probably win the South. However, due to the fact that Lieberman has been a Democratic senator for 18 years, it is doubtful that leading republicans would accept the idea. However, if it works...

Rudy and McCain Campaign For Allen's Re-election

Senator George Allen (R-VA) is facing an increasingly competitive challenge for his senate seat from Democrat Jim Webb. President Bush recently traveled to Virginia to campaign for Allen, and John McCain and Rudy Giuliani plan visits later this month. Both recognize the advantage of having a competitor owe him a political favor.

McCain backs Crist for Florida Governor

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) has been traveling around the country supporting weak republicans, and most of them have either already lost, or are probably going to lose. He has picked terrible people to support. His idea is that if he has a nationwide network of republicans who owe their jobs to him, he will have an advantage in 2008. So far, it has been a waste of time. He recently traveled to Florida to support Charlie Crist, the Republican

State Attorney General Charlie Crist (R-FL)

candidate for governor. Crist has been winning by five to ten points in recent polls, proving that McCain is being more cautious. The current governor, Jeb Bush, is retiring, and some pundits are floating the possibility of a McCain-Bush ticket. Although I think it would be a mistake to put a Bush on the ballot, it would win Florida for McCain. You never know....

Dems Preparing For Romney

With Romney taking a surge, the democrats are gearing up for a Romney nomination. The Democratic National Committee has acquired all of the public material on Mitt Romney's record from the state government. This shows that they think Romney has a serious chance, as it is very time consuming to go over such a large record.

Giuliani Running-Says Novak

Conservative columnist Robert Novak, known for his participation in the leaking of CIA agent Valerie Plame's identity, has many confidential sources, and now says that Giuliani will run. Although he has placed first in at least two thirds of Republican primary polls, he has still insisted he is making up his mind. Novak claims, "Republican insiders respond to these numbers by saying rank-and-file GOP voters will abandon Giuliani once they realize his position on abortion, gay rights and gun control. Party strategists calculate that if he actually runs, he must change on at least one of these issues."
New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)
This is not impossible, as "America's Mayor" is now claiming he never supported gay marriage. Novak's Inside Report "confirmed" that Giuliani will try for the nomination. This was, "confirmed by one of the former New York mayor's closest Republican friends. He said Giuliani definitely is running."

Robert Novak

Everyone's Afraid of Romney

Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) appears to be surging. Apparently, the entire field of GOP candidates is afraid of him.

Al Franken has labeled Grover Norquist, the head of Americans for Tax Reform as the most powerful person outside the White House. He wields enormous power in important circles, as every week he organizes a meeting of representatives from all of the conservative interest groups. Under his direction, they can resolve their differences and make alliances. He had this to say about Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney:

"When I talk to each of the presidential candidates, every one of them brings up Romney -- unsolicited -- because they're all focused on him as the smartest, toughest guy in the race,.....He is very well thought of."

It sure seems like Romney is going to be a much bigger factor in this race than was expected.


Grover Norquist

Kerry and Romney Interest Iowa

Senator John Kerry (D-MA)
With Kerry finishing fourth (behind Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, and John Edwards) in polls for the Democratic primary, and still known for his loss to Bush in the 2004 election, his chances do not look good in 2008. However, although he bores supporters in his home state of Massachusetts, Des Moines register pundit David Yepsen reports that his style is "...sharper and more populist" and his speeches have "...more humor than the wonkish dissertations he served up four years ago." The Bush campaign framed Kerry as being a wooden, out-of-the-loop, Massachusetts liberal, and was able to scare Christian evangelicals into voting for Bush. If Kerry can get some of the charisma and humor that made Bush appeal to the average american, than he has a much better chance.

As for Romney, Yepsen reported that a Republican activist compared him to Reagan. Although Romney is under fire in his home state for the Big Dig fiasco, the Iowa Reagan comparison should be taken seriously. First of all, Many republicans idolize Reagan, and think of him as the ideal president. For an activist who really knows to make this comparison means that Romney probably will do better than his single digit polling results suggest.

Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) David Yepsen

Hillary Clinton Information

Senator Hillary Clinton (D-New York/Arkansas)

Interest Group Ratings:
http://www.vote-smart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=WNY99268

Voting Record:
http://www.vote-smart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=WNY99268

Campaign Finance:
http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.asp?cid=N00000019

Issue Positions:
http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Hillary_Clinton.htm

Biography:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton

John McCain Info

I have been requested to include more information on the likely candidates. So here are links to where you can get more in-depth information.

Senator John McCain (R-Arizona)

Interest Group Ratings:
http://www.vote-smart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=S0061103

Voting Record:
http://www.vote-smart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=S0061103

Campaign Finance:
http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.asp?cid=N00006424

Issue Positions:
http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/John_McCain.htm

Biography:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_mccain

McCain's Problems

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)
The only reason that this election is competitive is that John McCain's web of power is full of holes. He may look like a moderate unbeatable maverick, but he's not. The whole strategy relies on convincing one group to believe one thing about him, and another to think differently. That might work in a vacuum, but in actual practice, it won't. This is because he relies on the moderates thinking he's an independent, while having the arch-conservatives thinking he's one of them. This presents a problem. GOP activists don't just watch him when he's talking to them. They follow his every move. If you pay attention, it's clear he's trying to have it both ways: be a maverick and be a Bush supporter.
In court if you contradict yourself, the jury has the right to disregard everything else you say. That explains that when the people who wind up making a difference (the interest groups and party activists) do not believe his sincerity when he speaks at Falwell's university, because they know that next week he will sponsor legislation they don't like. The people who are paying attention interact with people who aren't, the message finds the right people and "tips" and soon everybody knows about it. See Malcolm Gladwell's ingenius book The Tipping Point. A recent article from the Concord Monitor showed how leaders of the Christian Coalition and Gun Rights organizations in New Hampshire just don't buy it when McCain flips back and forth. Now he can pick and choose his TV spots, but when the national spotlight shines on his web full 'o' holes, he is going to pay big time.

Mark Warner Is Amazing

Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, who made millions in the cellphone industry by co-founding Nextel, knows the value of technology. I recently discovered his video podcast, and I must share how inspired I was. His critics say he has no charisma, but he is one of the most passionate public speakers I have ever seen, and I have deeply researched linguistics and political rhetoric. He has a great stump speech, rivalling John Edwards's brilliant "Two Americas". Here are some of his accolades and credits:

1. First in his family to attend college
2. When he first ran for governor, everybody said it couldn't be done. Warner united Democrats, Independents, and Republicans and won.
3. He knows how to connect with Joe Schmo living in Kansas (his campaign sponsored a NASCAR racecar)
4. Has a good record with minorities.
5. Governing rated Virginia as the best managed state in the nation.
6. In four years, 136,000 more children have health insurance.
7. 35,000 students earned G.E.D.s.
8. Time Magazine put him in the best Five Governors
9. He closed 6 billion dollars in budget shortfalls.
10. Under his supervision, 260 rivers and streams were cleaned.
11. 52% more public schools accredited.
12. Virginia is #1 in water quality standards.
13. Cut food tax.
14. 122,000 new jobs in four years.
15. Virginia had the nation's largest increase in Math SAT scores
16. He was the chairman of the national governor's asociation.
17. Governing Magazine rated him the "Top Public Official"
18. He started the ForwardTogether PAC, which has raised millions for progressive candidates nationwide.

When you put these together, he seems like the ideal candidate. However, despite the advantages of putting him with Evan Bayh, he will probably nee someone with foreign policy experience. I would bet on Hispanic Gov. Bill Richardson (D) NM or Hillary Clinton to be his running mate.

Giuliani labeled "GOP Wild Card"

Rudy Giuliani is not your average politician. He has earned the nickname "America's Mayor" for his effective and decisive leadership after the 9/11 attacks. However, his liberal views on abortion, gay marriage, and gun control, combined with his morally questionable divorce while mayor may enrage the party's social conservatives. However, he has a reputation with the american public as a leader and a hero. By the time the primaries come around, we could very well still be in Iraq, have troops in Iran and Lebanon, and be engaged in nuclear talks with North Korea. People will want someone who they know is a leader. It comes down to how much of a mess the world is in. Thus, we have a GOP Wild Card.
Former Mayor of New York City Rudy Giuliani

Huntsman Backs McCain

The most popular governor in the nation, Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT), had previously supported fellow mormon Mitt Romney for president in 2008. He recently changed his choice to Senator John McCain. This has his ups and downs, as Utah does not have an early primary, and many evangelicals label the mormon religion as a cult. However, It does give McCain a small boost in the moderate segment of the GOP field.

Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT)

Murdoch changes his mind about Hillary

A few months ago, News Corp. Owner Rupert Murdoch startled everybody by hosting a Hillary Clinton fundraiser. However, when recently asked by Charlie Rose who he would support in a Hillary v. McCain contest, he said that he would "probably support McCain. If it was happening today, I think so." Hillary can say goodbye to that advantage.


Ruper Murdoch

GEORGE ALLEN UPDATE

I'm sorry I haven't updated in a month. I've been busy. Due to polls and developments, I have briefly changed the rankings.

REPUBLICAN #1
SEN. JOHN McCAIN

REPUBLICAN #2
FORMER NEW YORK CITY MAYOR RUDY GIULIANI

REPUBLICAN #3
FORMER HOUSE SPEAKER NEWT GINGRICH

REPUBLICAN #4
SEN. GEORGE ALLEN

REPUBLICAN #5
SEN. BILL FRIST

------------------------------------------------
DEMOCRAT #1
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON

DEMOCRAT #2
FORMER GOV. MARK WARNER

DEMOCRAT #3
FORMER VP AL GORE

DEMOCRAT #4
FORMER SEN. JOHN EDWARDS

DEMOCRAT #5
GOV. BILL RICHARDSON

Republican #1

1. Sen. John McCain (R) Arizona
After eight years of President Bush, the Republican party will be in shambles. With plummeting approval ratings for Bush, Republicans in Congress, the war in Iraq, the economy, and many other issues, many Republicans will jump ship to save their careers. John McCain is known in every household in the country, as he receives so much media attention. Although he is no moderate, (he always voted for oil drilling in the Artic Wildlife Refuge, to ban "partial birth" abortion and stem cell research, and supported the Federal Marriage Amendment, a rejected amendment that would have prohibited Gay Marriage. He recieved very low ratings from the NAACP, the Brady Campaign against Gun Violence, and voted many times to cut education, food stamps, and welfare spending) McCain was shot down and tortured in Vietnam, and the public views him as an independent thinker because he occaisonally disagrees with the radical policies of the current administration. Due to Allen and Frist's loss of momentum, if will take an unforseen upheaval to get the nomination to somebody else.

Republican #2

Sen. George Allen (R-VA)
With the radical Christian right upset at the fact that President Bush did not nominate total extremists to the Supreme Court, they will not trust John McCain to carry out their agenda. With the Republicans desperately trying to rebuild their former stature, they have realized an important fact. With the Democrats doing so well, they might lose either Florida or Ohio in 2008. Former Virginia governor Mark Warner is very dangerous to them, and the Republicans basically lose if they lose Virginia. Fortunately for them, they have Senator Allen. He is a VERY strong conservative who has been rated very highly by every major conservative interest group, and essentially 0 by all of the liberal ones. He would be adored by the Christian Right. They constitute such a large portion of the Republican electorate that it is almost impossible to receive the nomination without their help. If in fact McCain does recieve the nomination, anticipate someone like Allen running as a third party candidate. Without the help of the Republican base, McCain could be in trouble. Allen, though, has been recently hurt by a loss of momentum, and now it appears that even if he is the nominee, he will STILL lose Virginia to Mark Warner. Therefore, his primary chances are about 1:3, and IF he gets the nomination, his chances against Warner are 2:3. However, don't expect the far right to be satisfied with McCain.

Saturday, June 3, 2006

Sorry, I've gotten a little behind the times. Here is the news for the 3rd. I will try to catch up quickly.
------------------------------------------------
George Allen: Loses a heap of points for having (many years ago) a confederate flag and noose hanging in his office

Mark Warner: Has Jerome Armstrong on the payroll of his Forward Together PAC. Armstrong started MyDD, one of the most popular liberal blogs. It gets several hundred thousand visitors per day.............is campaigning madly all over Virginia for the opponents of Republican senator George Allen. Allen is a likely candidate in 2008.

Bill Frist: Loses points because his 2000 senate campaign was recently fined $11,000 by the FEC.

Hillary Clinton: Is losing ground in Florida - a recent Quinnipiac University poll found her barely leading George Allen and Mitt Romney, who are barely known in the state - and trailing John McCain and Rudy Giuliani by five or six points apiece. However, I repeat that if the Democrats go Warner-Bayh, they can lose Florida and not care at all.

Republican #3

Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) Senate Majority Leader
Frist has always been a loyal Republican soldier, and many believe that Vice-President Dick Cheney will either resign, be impeached, or die before his term is out, and Frist will be named as the replacement. A former doctor, Frist would be trusted to handle health care, an issue that the vast majority of the country trusts the democrats on. He would also follow the orders of Republican leaders, so there would be no chance of him going against his party. Frist is definitely running, as he is not seeking reelection in the senate these mid-term elections. The cons are that he is involved in an ethics investigation in which he illegally sold $119,000,000 of stocks in HCA, a family company, two weeks before the stock plummeted. This action saved him $20,000,000. Also, he is not the most likable personality, something that has always been essential to the election of Republican presidents.

Republican #4

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
Here is where I make a big change. Count out Tommy Thompson. I forgot that he is the Secretary of Health and Human Services. Instead, #4 goes to Newt Gingrich. He masterminded the 1994 Republican takeover, and has many connections. Another pro is that he has disappeared in recent years, making it impossible to tie him to unpopular bills or strange votes. A southerner, many (republicans) associate him with the "good old days". He has shown ability to effectively seperate himself from the administration, while still maintaining allies.

Republican #5

Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) Nebraska

Fifth on the list is senator Chuck Hagel. He is only so high because he is a war-criticizing moderate who cannot be successfully tied to the unpopular administration. He has also recieved a lot of publicity, and is percieved as a moderate. The cons are that when he first ran for Senate in 1996, his opponent was leading him by a huge margin. However, Hagel owned the voting machine company that supplied most of the voting machines to the state of Nebraska. Hagel won in an unprecendented upset, all of the exit polls stated that his opponent had beaten him badly. If the Democrats can frame this well enough, count Hagel out of the running.

Other Republican

There are many other likely candidates, but none have any strong shot at the nomination. Regardless, it is too early to tell so here are some of them with analysis. They are in no particular order.

Sen. Sam Brownback (R) Kansas
Brownback is a two-issue candidate, but the Republicans might like his obssessive opposition to stem-cell research and abortion. More likely, the radical right will be fed up with having a moderate like McCain or Hagel, and might draft Brownback or another conservative to mount a third-party campaign. The fact that he supported Bush's immigration reform bill might hurt him.

Gov. Mitt Romney (R) Massachusetts
A Mormon, Republican, Moderate, ex-pro-choice, governor of Massachusetts! You've got to be kidding me. He will run though, and might steal some primary votes from McCain or Hagel. However, he is beginning to look like the most likely dark horse.

Gov. George Pataki (R) New York
Pataki is not extremely well liked in his home state, and gives the impression of being an not very smart. Anyway, he's from New York. Bye-bye.

There are other possible candidates who I have not discussed here. They don't stand a chance, nor do they stand any real chance of making a difference in the primary.

Rudy Giuliani and Condeleezza Rice are mentioned in Republican #1.

Allen the True Conservative

Today the United States Senate passed President Bush's immigration reform bill, which will strengthen border security, and institute a guest-worker program. John McCain (R) AZ, Chuck Hagel (R) NE, Sam Brownback (R) KS, and Bill Frist (R) TN - all possible contenders for the Republican Nomination in 2008, supported this bill, but George Allen, True Conservative, stayed with the far right of his party, and cried against the bill. It remains to be seen how this will affect his chances in the General, but this

Senator George Allen (R-VA)
behavior will make him the darling of the far-right - a.k.a. Jerry Falwell & Co. A risky political move it may be, but only gamblers make it to the oval office.

Warner-Bayh, The Ticket that can Win

Mark Warner Evan Bayh
Former Virginia Gov. Indiana Sen.

I was wondering recently what the politically ideal democratic ticket would look like. First, my thought was Mark Warner and Bill Richardson. My reasoning was that Warner would carry Virginia and West Virginia, pushing the Democrats to the victory. (Assuming everything else repeats itself from 2004). As insurance, I thought that Richardson would carry New Mexico, possibly Hispanics in Florida, and even maybe Nevada, a "purple" state. If the GOP messes it up, maybe even Colorado! However, I am willing to ASSUME that the DEMOCRATS WILL LOSE FLORIDA IN 2008. This comes from my belief that if you favor the opponent and your candidate still wins, than it will take a huge unforseen event to prove you wrong.
With John McCain, a "moderate" as the Republican frontrunner, the Democrats must prepare for losses where they don't expect it to McCain's mometum and popularity. McCain could win Florida, and being from the southwest, he could dash all hopes if NM, CO, and NV. With these hopes gone, Richarson doesn't look so great, and when you add the baseball scandal (Lying about being drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the 1970's, he looks like exactly the candidate you don't want on your ticket. Looking around for a VP alternative, I must agree with pundit Larry Sabato, and insist on Evan Bayh.
***************CORRECTIONS FOR THE RECORD**********************
I stated in "OTHER DEMOCRAT" that Evan Bayh was not very experienced. I meant that he is not experienced in "FOREIGN POLICY". He has had two successful terms as Governor, and two as senator.

I also stated in that article that John McCain would take all of the centrist vote. After his appearance at Jerry Falwell's Liberty University, things no longer look that way, and Bayh looks much better. Times have changed.
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Back to business. Bayh is more experienced than Warner, and would combat the "inexperience" challenge that met John Edwards in 2004. If you read Sabato's article, which I would highly recommend, you will find that electorally, this is a rare opportunity for the Democrats.
1. Warner will almost certainly carry red-state Virginia. 13 Electoral Votes
2. Warner will probably carry sister state West Virginia. 5 Electoral Votes
3. Warner also has long-standing family ties in Iowa, and has already campaigned extensively there. 7 Electoral Votes
4. Evan Bayh will very likely carry his home state where he is loved: Indiana. 13 Electoral Votes.
5. Indiana is right next to Bush-Hating Ohio. 20 Electoral Votes.
6. This may seem like a bit of a stretch, but Bush as a 29% approval in Missouri, which disapproves more than ANY OTHER RED STATE, INCLUDING OHIO. INCUMBENT SENATOR TALENT, WILL LIKELY BE OUSTED IN 2006, AND THE SHOW-ME STATE WANTS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO DO THE SHOWING. 11 Electoral Votes.

If you add this up, 13+5+7+13+20+11=69.

I will give the GOP Ohio. Heck, I'll give them New Hampshire. I'll give them Hawaii. I'll give them Wisconsin. I'll give them Iowa, Blue State Oregon, and Maine's fourth fluctuating electoral vote, but Warner-Bayh will still triumph in the end. Not to be overconfident, but the Republicans will never get Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin, Oregon, Iowa, New Hampshire, Hawaii, AND Maine's fourth in one election. Never, never, never. Whether they get picked is another question altogether, but if they do the oval office is that much closer.

Hillary, With a Victory, Should Still Reconsider

Hillary Clinton has now been on her center trend for over a year. Now more than ever, she needs to pull out of her dive, and rouse her base. She is making a political miscalculation similar to McCain. However, he can afford mistakes, and she cannot. Her approval ratings as senator have been falling, etc. One thing she has done recently is to cuddle up to FOX News. Background: FOX News is not really news. Employees tell of how they were threatened into a republican bias...81% of Brit Hume's

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY)
guests are republicans...you get the idea. At first, I thought that she was committing political suicide, because Rupert Murdoch has blasted her since FOX came into existence in 1996. However, he is supporting her now, and recently attended one of her many fundraisers. This is meaningful because one of John McCain's biggest pluses is that the media loves him to death, and Hillary has long been their scapegoat. If Hillary can pull Murdoch to her side, it tips the entire balance of the election, as Rupert Murdoch is a billionaire, and owns News Corporation, which in turn owns the New York Post, HarperCollins publishers, TV Guide, 20th Century Fox, and others.

McCain's Advantage is Slimming

In recent polls, McCain's polled advantage in a head-to-head contest with Hillary Clinton has been getting smaller. Now it is withing five to ten points, down from the fifteen to twenty point lead he boasted several months ago. This is due to the fact that McCain, this past weekend, spoke at Rev. Jerry Falwell's Liberty University. Falwell believes that God blew up the world trade center because he was mad at homosexuals. McCain, attempting to make nice to the far right, is

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)

alienating his real base, the third of the population that identifies as independent. McCain knows that if he can straddle two of the three basically equal groups, (D, R, and I), he can win. However, he seems nervous that a radically conservative opponent will be launched, and he is trying to show his true colors. It won't work. by rushing to the right, he is abandoning his devoted center in the rain, and they won't run back for cover with him. No, they'll give the Dems a try. Hillary can thank her lucky stars, and so can Mark Warner, and George Allen, who dreams of the GOP nomination.

Background

This will be the first election in 56 years in which no sitting President or Vice-President is running. This will make for a very interesting race. Due to the large numbers of candidates in all the parties who will probably run, it is nearly impossible to predict an outcome yet. However, this blog will track the candidates all the way until election day 2008.