Tuesday, August 22, 2006

McCain-Lieberman?

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)
It may seem outrageous, but it makes political sense. Joe Lieberman recently lost renomination for his senate seat to Ned Lamont, and he has filed to run as an independent. Despite the fact that most major democrats have endorsed Lamont, Lieberman is leading by large amounts in most polls. For the past ten years, he has voted with the democrats,
1. To get Gore's VP pick in 2000 Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT)
2. To get the Nomination in 2004 (which he didn't)
3. To win renomination in the Senate (which he didn't either)

During these times, he has voted more consistently than he would have liked with the democrats so he could secure these opportunities. If he wins as an Independent (which is very likely) then he will be able to side with the republicans on borderline issues.

If John McCain wins the nomination, he could pick Lieberman as his VP choice because they would be competitive in the East where Bush-Cheney was not, and he would still probably win the South. However, due to the fact that Lieberman has been a Democratic senator for 18 years, it is doubtful that leading republicans would accept the idea. However, if it works...

Rudy and McCain Campaign For Allen's Re-election

Senator George Allen (R-VA) is facing an increasingly competitive challenge for his senate seat from Democrat Jim Webb. President Bush recently traveled to Virginia to campaign for Allen, and John McCain and Rudy Giuliani plan visits later this month. Both recognize the advantage of having a competitor owe him a political favor.

McCain backs Crist for Florida Governor


Senator John McCain (R-AZ) has been traveling around the country supporting weak republicans, and most of them have either already lost, or are probably going to lose. He has picked terrible people to support. His idea is that if he has a nationwide network of republicans who owe their jobs to him, he will have an advantage in 2008. So far, it has been a waste of time. He recently traveled to Florida to support Charlie Crist, the Republican
candidate for governor. Crist has been winning by five to ten points in recent polls, proving that McCain is being more cautious. The current governor, Jeb Bush, is retiring, and some pundits are floating the possibility of a McCain-Bush ticket. Although I think it would be a mistake to put a Bush on the ballot, it would win Florida for McCain. You never know....

Dems Preparing For Romney

With Romney taking a surge, the democrats are gearing up for a Romney nomination. The Democratic National Committee has acquired all of the public material on Mitt Romney's record from the state government. This shows that they think Romney has a serious chance, as it is very time consuming to go over such a large record.

Giuliani Running-Says Novak

Conservative columnist Robert Novak, known for his participation in the leaking of CIA agent Valerie Plame's identity, has many confidential sources, and now says that Giuliani will run. Although he has placed first in at least two thirds of Republican primary polls, he has still insisted he is making up his mind. Novak claims, "Republican insiders respond to these numbers by saying rank-and-file GOP voters will abandon Giuliani once they realize his position on abortion, gay rights and gun control. Party strategists calculate that if he actually runs, he must change on at least one of these issues."
New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)
This is not impossible, as "America's Mayor" is now claiming he never supported gay marriage. Novak's Inside Report "confirmed" that Giuliani will try for the nomination. This was, "confirmed by one of the former New York mayor's closest Republican friends. He said Giuliani definitely is running."

Robert Novak

Everyone's Afraid of Romney

Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) appears to be surging. Apparently, the entire field of GOP candidates is afraid of him.

Al Franken has labeled Grover Norquist, the head of Americans for Tax Reform as the most powerful person outside the White House. He wields enormous power in important circles, as every week he organizes a meeting of representatives from all of the conservative interest groups. Under his direction, they can resolve their differences and make alliances. He had this to say about Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney:

"When I talk to each of the presidential candidates, every one of them brings up Romney -- unsolicited -- because they're all focused on him as the smartest, toughest guy in the race,.....He is very well thought of."

It sure seems like Romney is going to be a much bigger factor in this race than was expected.


Grover Norquist

Kerry and Romney Interest Iowa

Senator John Kerry (D-MA)
With Kerry finishing fourth (behind Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, and John Edwards) in polls for the Democratic primary, and still known for his loss to Bush in the 2004 election, his chances do not look good in 2008. However, although he bores supporters in his home state of Massachusetts, Des Moines register pundit David Yepsen reports that his style is "...sharper and more populist" and his speeches have "...more humor than the wonkish dissertations he served up four years ago." The Bush campaign framed Kerry as being a wooden, out-of-the-loop, Massachusetts liberal, and was able to scare Christian evangelicals into voting for Bush. If Kerry can get some of the charisma and humor that made Bush appeal to the average american, than he has a much better chance.

As for Romney, Yepsen reported that a Republican activist compared him to Reagan. Although Romney is under fire in his home state for the Big Dig fiasco, the Iowa Reagan comparison should be taken seriously. First of all, Many republicans idolize Reagan, and think of him as the ideal president. For an activist who really knows to make this comparison means that Romney probably will do better than his single digit polling results suggest.
Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) David Yepsen

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Hillary Clinton Information

John McCain Info

I have been requested to include more information on the likely candidates. So here are links to where you can get more in-depth information.

Senator John McCain (R-Arizona)

Interest Group Ratings:
http://www.vote-smart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=S0061103

Voting Record:
http://www.vote-smart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=S0061103

Campaign Finance:
http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.asp?cid=N00006424

Issue Positions:
http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/John_McCain.htm

Biography:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_mccain

Monday, August 07, 2006

McCain's Problems

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)
The only reason that this election is competitive is that John McCain's web of power is full of holes. He may look like a moderate unbeatable maverick, but he's not. The whole strategy relies on convincing one group to believe one thing about him, and another to think differently. That might work in a vacuum, but in actual practice, it won't. This is because he relies on the moderates thinking he's an independent, while having the arch-conservatives thinking he's one of them. This presents a problem. GOP activists don't just watch him when he's talking to them. They follow his every move. If you pay attention, it's clear he's trying to have it both ways: be a maverick and be a Bush supporter.
In court if you contradict yourself, the jury has the right to disregard everything else you say. That explains that when the people who wind up making a difference (the interest groups and party activists) do not believe his sincerity when he speaks at Falwell's university, because they know that next week he will sponsor legislation they don't like. The people who are paying attention interact with people who aren't, the message finds the right people and "tips" and soon everybody knows about it. See Malcolm Gladwell's ingenius book The Tipping Point. A recent article from the Concord Monitor showed how leaders of the Christian Coalition and Gun Rights organizations in New Hampshire just don't buy it when McCain flips back and forth. Now he can pick and choose his TV spots, but when the national spotlight shines on his web full 'o' holes, he is going to pay big time.

Mark Warner Is Amazing

Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, who made millions in the cellphone industry by co-founding Nextel, knows the value of technology. I recently discovered his video podcast, and I must share how inspired I was. His critics say he has no charisma, but he is one of the most passionate public speakers I have ever seen, and I have deeply researched linguistics and political rhetoric. He has a great stump speech, rivalling John Edwards's brilliant "Two Americas". Here are some of his accolades and credits:

1. First in his family to attend college
2. When he first ran for governor, everybody said it couldn't be done. Warner united Democrats, Independents, and Republicans and won.
3. He knows how to connect with Joe Schmo living in Kansas (his campaign sponsored a NASCAR racecar)
4. Has a good record with minorities.
5. Governing rated Virginia as the best managed state in the nation.
6. In four years, 136,000 more children have health insurance.
7. 35,000 students earned G.E.D.s.
8. Time Magazine put him in the best Five Governors
9. He closed 6 billion dollars in budget shortfalls.
10. Under his supervision, 260 rivers and streams were cleaned.
11. 52% more public schools accredited.
12. Virginia is #1 in water quality standards.
13. Cut food tax.
14. 122,000 new jobs in four years.
15. Virginia had the nation's largest increase in Math SAT scores
16. He was the chairman of the national governor's asociation.
17. Governing Magazine rated him the "Top Public Official"
18. He started the ForwardTogether PAC, which has raised millions for progressive candidates nationwide.

When you put these together, he seems like the ideal candidate. However, despite the advantages of putting him with Evan Bayh, he will probably nee someone with foreign policy experience. I would bet on Hispanic Gov. Bill Richardson (D) NM or Hillary Clinton to be his running mate.

Giuliani labeled "GOP Wild Card"

Rudy Giuliani is not your average politician. He has earned the nickname "America's Mayor" for his effective and decisive leadership after the 9/11 attacks. However, his liberal views on abortion, gay marriage, and gun control, combined with his morally questionable divorce while mayor may enrage the party's social conservatives. However, he has a reputation with the american public as a leader and a hero. By the time the primaries come around, we could very well still be in Iraq, have troops in Iran and Lebanon, and be engaged in nuclear talks with North Korea. People will want someone who they know is a leader. It comes down to how much of a mess the world is in. Thus, we have a GOP Wild Card.
Former Mayor of New York City Rudy Giuliani

Huntsman Backs McCain

The most popular governor in the nation, Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT), had previously supported fellow mormon Mitt Romney for president in 2008. He recently changed his choice to Senator John McCain. This has his ups and downs, as Utah does not have an early primary, and many evangelicals label the mormon religion as a cult. However, It does give McCain a small boost in the moderate segment of the GOP field.

Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT)

Murdoch changes his mind about Hillary

A few months ago, News Corp. Owner Rupert Murdoch startled everybody by hosting a Hillary Clinton fundraiser. However, when recently asked by Charlie Rose who he would support in a Hillary v. McCain contest, he said that he would "probably support McCain. If it was happening today, I think so." Hillary can say goodbye to that advantage.


Ruper Murdoch