Saturday, May 27, 2006

Republican #3

Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) Senate Majority Leader
Frist has always been a loyal Republican soldier, and many believe that Vice-President Dick Cheney will either resign, be impeached, or die before his term is out, and Frist will be named as the replacement. A former doctor, Frist would be trusted to handle health care, an issue that the vast majority of the country trusts the democrats on. He would also follow the orders of Republican leaders, so there would be no chance of him going against his party. Frist is definitely running, as he is not seeking reelection in the senate these mid-term elections. The cons are that he is involved in an ethics investigation in which he illegally sold $119,000,000 of stocks in HCA, a family company, two weeks before the stock plummeted. This action saved him $20,000,000. Also, he is not the most likable personality, something that has always been essential to the election of Republican presidents.

Republican #4

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA)
Here is where I make a big change. Count out Tommy Thompson. I forgot that he is the Secretary of Health and Human Services. Instead, #4 goes to Newt Gingrich. He masterminded the 1994 Republican takeover, and has many connections. Another pro is that he has disappeared in recent years, making it impossible to tie him to unpopular bills or strange votes. A southerner, many (republicans) associate him with the "good old days". He has shown ability to effectively seperate himself from the administration, while still maintaining allies.

Republican #5

Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) Nebraska

Fifth on the list is senator Chuck Hagel. He is only so high because he is a war-criticizing moderate who cannot be successfully tied to the unpopular administration. He has also recieved a lot of publicity, and is percieved as a moderate. The cons are that when he first ran for Senate in 1996, his opponent was leading him by a huge margin. However, Hagel owned the voting machine company that supplied most of the voting machines to the state of Nebraska. Hagel won in an unprecendented upset, all of the exit polls stated that his opponent had beaten him badly. If the Democrats can frame this well enough, count Hagel out of the running.

Other Republican

There are many other likely candidates, but none have any strong shot at the nomination. Regardless, it is too early to tell so here are some of them with analysis. They are in no particular order.

Sen. Sam Brownback (R) Kansas
Brownback is a two-issue candidate, but the Republicans might like his obssessive opposition to stem-cell research and abortion. More likely, the radical right will be fed up with having a moderate like McCain or Hagel, and might draft Brownback or another conservative to mount a third-party campaign. The fact that he supported Bush's immigration reform bill might hurt him.

Gov. Mitt Romney (R) Massachusetts
A Mormon, Republican, Moderate, ex-pro-choice, governor of Massachusetts! You've got to be kidding me. He will run though, and might steal some primary votes from McCain or Hagel. However, he is beginning to look like the most likely dark horse.

Gov. George Pataki (R) New York
Pataki is not extremely well liked in his home state, and gives the impression of being an not very smart. Anyway, he's from New York. Bye-bye.

There are other possible candidates who I have not discussed here. They don't stand a chance, nor do they stand any real chance of making a difference in the primary.

Rudy Giuliani and Condeleezza Rice are mentioned in Republican #1.

Thursday, May 25, 2006

Allen the True Conservative

Today the United States Senate passed President Bush's immigration reform bill, which will strengthen border security, and institute a guest-worker program. John McCain (R) AZ, Chuck Hagel (R) NE, Sam Brownback (R) KS, and Bill Frist (R) TN - all possible contenders for the Republican Nomination in 2008, supported this bill, but George Allen, True Conservative, stayed with the far right of his party, and cried against the bill. It remains to be seen how this will affect his chances in the General, but this

Senator George Allen (R-VA)
behavior will make him the darling of the far-right - a.k.a. Jerry Falwell & Co. A risky political move it may be, but only gamblers make it to the oval office.

Warner-Bayh, The Ticket that can Win



Mark Warner Evan Bayh
Former Virginia Gov. Indiana Sen.

I was wondering recently what the politically ideal democratic ticket would look like. First, my thought was Mark Warner and Bill Richardson. My reasoning was that Warner would carry Virginia and West Virginia, pushing the Democrats to the victory. (Assuming everything else repeats itself from 2004). As insurance, I thought that Richardson would carry New Mexico, possibly Hispanics in Florida, and even maybe Nevada, a "purple" state. If the GOP messes it up, maybe even Colorado! However, I am willing to ASSUME that the DEMOCRATS WILL LOSE FLORIDA IN 2008. This comes from my belief that if you favor the opponent and your candidate still wins, than it will take a huge unforseen event to prove you wrong.
With John McCain, a "moderate" as the Republican frontrunner, the Democrats must prepare for losses where they don't expect it to McCain's mometum and popularity. McCain could win Florida, and being from the southwest, he could dash all hopes if NM, CO, and NV. With these hopes gone, Richarson doesn't look so great, and when you add the baseball scandal (Lying about being drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the 1970's, he looks like exactly the candidate you don't want on your ticket. Looking around for a VP alternative, I must agree with pundit Larry Sabato, and insist on Evan Bayh.
***************CORRECTIONS FOR THE RECORD**********************
I stated in "OTHER DEMOCRAT" that Evan Bayh was not very experienced. I meant that he is not experienced in "FOREIGN POLICY". He has had two successful terms as Governor, and two as senator.

I also stated in that article that John McCain would take all of the centrist vote. After his appearance at Jerry Falwell's Liberty University, things no longer look that way, and Bayh looks much better. Times have changed.
*********************************************************************
Back to business. Bayh is more experienced than Warner, and would combat the "inexperience" challenge that met John Edwards in 2004. If you read Sabato's article, which I would highly recommend, you will find that electorally, this is a rare opportunity for the Democrats.
1. Warner will almost certainly carry red-state Virginia. 13 Electoral Votes
2. Warner will probably carry sister state West Virginia. 5 Electoral Votes
3. Warner also has long-standing family ties in Iowa, and has already campaigned extensively there. 7 Electoral Votes
4. Evan Bayh will very likely carry his home state where he is loved: Indiana. 13 Electoral Votes.
5. Indiana is right next to Bush-Hating Ohio. 20 Electoral Votes.
6. This may seem like a bit of a stretch, but Bush as a 29% approval in Missouri, which disapproves more than ANY OTHER RED STATE, INCLUDING OHIO. INCUMBENT SENATOR TALENT, WILL LIKELY BE OUSTED IN 2006, AND THE SHOW-ME STATE WANTS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO DO THE SHOWING. 11 Electoral Votes.

If you add this up, 13+5+7+13+20+11=69.

I will give the GOP Ohio. Heck, I'll give them New Hampshire. I'll give them Hawaii. I'll give them Wisconsin. I'll give them Iowa, Blue State Oregon, and Maine's fourth fluctuating electoral vote, but Warner-Bayh will still triumph in the end. Not to be overconfident, but the Republicans will never get Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin, Oregon, Iowa, New Hampshire, Hawaii, AND Maine's fourth in one election. Never, never, never. Whether they get picked is another question altogether, but if they do the oval office is that much closer.

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Hillary, With a Victory, Should Still Reconsider

Hillary Clinton has now been on her center trend for over a year. Now more than ever, she needs to pull out of her dive, and rouse her base. She is making a political miscalculation similar to McCain. However, he can afford mistakes, and she cannot. Her approval ratings as senator have been falling, etc. One thing she has done recently is to cuddle up to FOX News. Background: FOX News is not really news. Employees tell of how they were threatened into a republican bias...81% of Brit Hume's



Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY)
guests are republicans...you get the idea. At first, I thought that she was committing political suicide, because Rupert Murdoch has blasted her since FOX came into existence in 1996. However, he is supporting her now, and recently attended one of her many fundraisers. This is meaningful because one of John McCain's biggest pluses is that the media loves him to death, and Hillary has long been their scapegoat. If Hillary can pull Murdoch to her side, it tips the entire balance of the election, as Rupert Murdoch is a billionaire, and owns News Corporation, which in turn owns the New York Post, HarperCollins publishers, TV Guide, 20th Century Fox, and others.

McCain's Advantage is Slimming

In recent polls, McCain's polled advantage in a head-to-head contest with Hillary Clinton has been getting smaller. Now it is withing five to ten points, down from the fifteen to twenty point lead he boasted several months ago. This is due to the fact that McCain, this past weekend, spoke at Rev. Jerry Falwell's Liberty University. Falwell believes that God blew up the world trade center because he was mad at homosexuals. McCain, attempting to make nice to the far right, is
alienating his real base, the third of the population that identifies as independent. McCain knows that if he can straddle two of the three basically equal groups, (D, R, and I), he can win. However, he seems nervous that a radically conservative opponent will be launched, and he is trying to show his true colors. It won't work. by rushing to the right, he is abandoning his devoted center in the rain, and they won't run back for cover with him. No, they'll give the Dems a try. Hillary can thank her lucky stars, and so can Mark Warner, and George Allen, who dreams of the GOP nomination.