Mark Warner Evan Bayh
Former Virginia Gov. Indiana Sen.
I was wondering recently what the politically ideal democratic ticket would look like. First, my thought was Mark Warner and Bill Richardson. My reasoning was that Warner would carry Virginia and West Virginia, pushing the Democrats to the victory. (Assuming everything else repeats itself from 2004). As insurance, I thought that Richardson would carry New Mexico, possibly Hispanics in Florida, and even maybe Nevada, a "purple" state. If the GOP messes it up, maybe even Colorado! However, I am willing to ASSUME that the DEMOCRATS WILL LOSE FLORIDA IN 2008. This comes from my belief that if you favor the opponent and your candidate still wins, than it will take a huge unforseen event to prove you wrong.
With John McCain, a "moderate" as the Republican frontrunner, the Democrats must prepare for losses where they don't expect it to McCain's mometum and popularity. McCain could win Florida, and being from the southwest, he could dash all hopes if NM, CO, and NV. With these hopes gone, Richarson doesn't look so great, and when you add the baseball scandal (Lying about being drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the 1970's, he looks like exactly the candidate you don't want on your ticket. Looking around for a VP alternative, I must agree with pundit Larry Sabato, and insist on Evan Bayh.
***************CORRECTIONS FOR THE RECORD**********************
I stated in "OTHER DEMOCRAT" that Evan Bayh was not very experienced. I meant that he is not experienced in "FOREIGN POLICY". He has had two successful terms as Governor, and two as senator.
I also stated in that article that John McCain would take all of the centrist vote. After his appearance at Jerry Falwell's Liberty University, things no longer look that way, and Bayh looks much better. Times have changed.
*********************************************************************
Back to business. Bayh is more experienced than Warner, and would combat the "inexperience" challenge that met John Edwards in 2004. If you read Sabato's article, which I would highly recommend, you will find that electorally, this is a rare opportunity for the Democrats.
1. Warner will almost certainly carry red-state Virginia. 13 Electoral Votes
2. Warner will probably carry sister state West Virginia. 5 Electoral Votes
3. Warner also has long-standing family ties in Iowa, and has already campaigned extensively there. 7 Electoral Votes
4. Evan Bayh will very likely carry his home state where he is loved: Indiana. 13 Electoral Votes.
5. Indiana is right next to Bush-Hating Ohio. 20 Electoral Votes.
6. This may seem like a bit of a stretch, but Bush as a 29% approval in Missouri, which disapproves more than ANY OTHER RED STATE, INCLUDING OHIO. INCUMBENT SENATOR TALENT, WILL LIKELY BE OUSTED IN 2006, AND THE SHOW-ME STATE WANTS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO DO THE SHOWING. 11 Electoral Votes.
If you add this up, 13+5+7+13+20+11=69.
I will give the GOP Ohio. Heck, I'll give them New Hampshire. I'll give them Hawaii. I'll give them Wisconsin. I'll give them Iowa, Blue State Oregon, and Maine's fourth fluctuating electoral vote, but Warner-Bayh will still triumph in the end. Not to be overconfident, but the Republicans will never get Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin, Oregon, Iowa, New Hampshire, Hawaii, AND Maine's fourth in one election. Never, never, never. Whether they get picked is another question altogether, but if they do the oval office is that much closer.
With John McCain, a "moderate" as the Republican frontrunner, the Democrats must prepare for losses where they don't expect it to McCain's mometum and popularity. McCain could win Florida, and being from the southwest, he could dash all hopes if NM, CO, and NV. With these hopes gone, Richarson doesn't look so great, and when you add the baseball scandal (Lying about being drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the 1970's, he looks like exactly the candidate you don't want on your ticket. Looking around for a VP alternative, I must agree with pundit Larry Sabato, and insist on Evan Bayh.
***************CORRECTIONS FOR THE RECORD**********************
I stated in "OTHER DEMOCRAT" that Evan Bayh was not very experienced. I meant that he is not experienced in "FOREIGN POLICY". He has had two successful terms as Governor, and two as senator.
I also stated in that article that John McCain would take all of the centrist vote. After his appearance at Jerry Falwell's Liberty University, things no longer look that way, and Bayh looks much better. Times have changed.
*********************************************************************
Back to business. Bayh is more experienced than Warner, and would combat the "inexperience" challenge that met John Edwards in 2004. If you read Sabato's article, which I would highly recommend, you will find that electorally, this is a rare opportunity for the Democrats.
1. Warner will almost certainly carry red-state Virginia. 13 Electoral Votes
2. Warner will probably carry sister state West Virginia. 5 Electoral Votes
3. Warner also has long-standing family ties in Iowa, and has already campaigned extensively there. 7 Electoral Votes
4. Evan Bayh will very likely carry his home state where he is loved: Indiana. 13 Electoral Votes.
5. Indiana is right next to Bush-Hating Ohio. 20 Electoral Votes.
6. This may seem like a bit of a stretch, but Bush as a 29% approval in Missouri, which disapproves more than ANY OTHER RED STATE, INCLUDING OHIO. INCUMBENT SENATOR TALENT, WILL LIKELY BE OUSTED IN 2006, AND THE SHOW-ME STATE WANTS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO DO THE SHOWING. 11 Electoral Votes.
If you add this up, 13+5+7+13+20+11=69.
I will give the GOP Ohio. Heck, I'll give them New Hampshire. I'll give them Hawaii. I'll give them Wisconsin. I'll give them Iowa, Blue State Oregon, and Maine's fourth fluctuating electoral vote, but Warner-Bayh will still triumph in the end. Not to be overconfident, but the Republicans will never get Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin, Oregon, Iowa, New Hampshire, Hawaii, AND Maine's fourth in one election. Never, never, never. Whether they get picked is another question altogether, but if they do the oval office is that much closer.
No comments:
Post a Comment