McCain's Problems

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)
The only reason that this election is competitive is that John McCain's web of power is full of holes. He may look like a moderate unbeatable maverick, but he's not. The whole strategy relies on convincing one group to believe one thing about him, and another to think differently. That might work in a vacuum, but in actual practice, it won't. This is because he relies on the moderates thinking he's an independent, while having the arch-conservatives thinking he's one of them. This presents a problem. GOP activists don't just watch him when he's talking to them. They follow his every move. If you pay attention, it's clear he's trying to have it both ways: be a maverick and be a Bush supporter.
In court if you contradict yourself, the jury has the right to disregard everything else you say. That explains that when the people who wind up making a difference (the interest groups and party activists) do not believe his sincerity when he speaks at Falwell's university, because they know that next week he will sponsor legislation they don't like. The people who are paying attention interact with people who aren't, the message finds the right people and "tips" and soon everybody knows about it. See Malcolm Gladwell's ingenius book The Tipping Point. A recent article from the Concord Monitor showed how leaders of the Christian Coalition and Gun Rights organizations in New Hampshire just don't buy it when McCain flips back and forth. Now he can pick and choose his TV spots, but when the national spotlight shines on his web full 'o' holes, he is going to pay big time.