Edwards Announces

Finally! Something more exciting than endless lists of Exploratory Committees. Today, December 28, John Edwards announced he is running for president. He did it in an unusual place, New Orleans' Ninth Ward, which was completely destroyed during Hurricane Katrina. Edwards pledged to do five things:

• Guarantee everyone health care
• End Poverty
• Lead the Fight Against Global Warming
• Breaking the American and World Addiction to Oil
• Providing Moral Leadership: Starting with getting out of Iraq

These will work very well in Iowa, where Edwards is loved and "Oil addiction" is code for "ethanol production". Iowa is made of corn, so naturally he does well there.

Early Iowa Poll Shows Surprising Results

KCCI-TV/Research 2000 has conducted a poll of Iowans asking them for whom they will vote in the 2008 caucuses. The Democratic voters chose this:

Barack Obama.................22%
John Edwards..................23%
Hillary Clinton................10%
Al Gore.............................7%
John Kerry.......................5%
Dennis Kucinich..............4%
Wesley Clark...................4%
A bunch of people with less than 1%.

Prediction: Vilsack gets 10%. Gore doesn't run: Hillary gets 5% and Obama gets 2%. Kerry doesn't run and Hillary gets his 5%. Edwards loses 8%: 6% goes to Hillary and 2% goes to Obama. Obama loses 5-7% to Hillary. Undecideds move to Hillary and Obama. Final Result:
Hillary Clinton...............38%
Barack Obama...............25%
John Edwards................15%
Tom Vilsack...................10%
Dennis Kucinich..............4%
Wesley Clark...................3%
Joe Biden.........................3%
Others with less than 1%.

Republicans chose:
John McCain...................27%
Rudy Giuliani..................26%
Mitt Romney...................9%
Newt Gingrich.................7%
Condi Rice........................4%
Others with less than 1%.

Prediction: Romney's stock will double without hurting anyone, McCain's stock will fall 5-10%, Condi Rice won't run and her 4% will go to Romney. Romney and McCain take 10% each of Giuliani's showing. Final Result:
Mitt Romney....................36%
John McCain....................32%
Rudy Giuliani...................10%
Newt Gingrich.................10%
Sam Brownback...............5%
Mike Huckabee................5%
George Pataki..................1%

Gilmore Files

Former Governor Jim Gilmore (R-VA) announced that he will run for president in 2008. The move caught everyone off guard, as most were expecting he would reseek the governorship in 2009. Expect him to do well in the South, and make a minor impact. He comes in behind Sam Brownback in the rankings.

New Jersey Passes Gay Rights Law

12.14.06
The New Jersey State legislature passed a bill that would grant gay couples equal rights. It was passed overwhelmingly in both houses, and Governor Jon Corzine (D-NJ) announced he would sign it.

Prediction: When Massachusetts did something similar, people wrote it off. With another state following suit, expect a few more states to legalize gay marriage and grant them rights within the next few years. It will be an issue in 2008.

Senator Johnson Has Stroke

12.14.06

Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) suffered what looked like a stroke while giving an interview. He was taken to the hospital, where he was placed under intensive care. He had emergency brain surgery that night. If he is unable to serve, the governor of South Dakota, Republican Mike Rounds, will appoint the next senator. If Rounds was to appoint a republican, it would tie the senate and (because of vice president Cheney) effectively hand it back to the republicans.

Kucinich Announces Candidacy

12.12.06
No explanation needed.

Romney Nailed on Gay Marriage

12.10.06

In 1994 Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) wrote a letter to the log cabin republicans. In it, he makes several statements that imply his support in gay marriage, especially the federal "don't ask, don't tell" policy when he wrote it, "will ultimately lead to gays and lesbians being able to serve openly and honestly in our nation’s military". Conservative leaders immediately began to express doubts. However, he did get the endorsements of Missouri Governor Matt Blunt and Florida State House Speaker Allan Bense.

Brownback Starts Exploratory Committee

12.04.06

Jeez, I'm getting really tired of all these exploratory committees. At least this one is kind of interesting: on Brownback's steering committee are Former Major League Baseball Commissioner Bowie Kuhn, Domino's (pizza chain) founder Tom Monaghan, and the Reverened Frank Pavone, head of Priests for Life. Daniel Owen of ovaloffice2008.com pointed out that it sounds like a fun-filled weekend. Brilliant Observation.

Bayh Starts Exploratory Committee

12.03.06
Evan Bayh, preparing to position himself as the best alternative to Hillary Clinton, defended his position, saying, "As the people get to know me, I think we'll do very well ... Is this a little bit like David and Goliath? A little bit, but as I recall, David did OK." Bayh would later drop out after it appeared that Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) would run. Obama has yet to announce as of 12/28/06.

Daschle, Barely In, Is Out

12.03.06

There have been murmurs in the blogosphere of a return for former Senator Tom Daschle (D-SD), but he squashed the rumors once and for all, saying, "I've had a lot of encouragement" but "...I will not seek the Presidency of the United States." Either way, being such a nobody from such a small state, he would not last long.

Tancredo Embarrasses Himself in Florida

11.29.06

Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-CO) made some very foolish comments in the battleground state of Florida on the 29th. He compared Miami to a "Third-world country" and the people went berserk. Governor Jeb Bush demanded Tancredo apologize. Instead, Tancredo wrote a fiery response, defending his comments and criticized the governor for being "naive". He may have guts, but he doesn't have brains, this Tancredo.

Carter Obsessed With Gore

11.29.06
Former President and Nobel Laureate Jimmy Carter (D-GA) said on Hardball with Chris Matthews that his favorite candidate is definitely Al Gore (D-TN). Supposedly Carter has been bothering Gore to run, although he has already said he will pass on the race.

Editorial:
Gore is the strongest Democrat. He deserves the presidency, having won it before. He comes without the negative connotation of Hillary Clinton but with presidential campaign experience before. He ran such a bungled campaign, and he still won the popular vote, that if he tries to fix his mistakes of the past, he will run the strongest campaign.

Frist Gives Up

11.29.06
Outgoing Senator Bill Frist (R-TN), who has been preparing for a 2008 white house run for 12 years, has decided to pass on the race. This far into the campaign season, he had expected to have support, but it appears that his lack of charisma and loyal followers was hurting him a lot. On the 29th, he pulled the plug.

Hoyer is Majority Leader, Lott Becomes Whip

11.15.06-11.16.06
Incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) supported John Murtha (D-PA) for the position of Majority Leader, but ethical issues arising over Murtha caused the House Dem caucus to choose former minority whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) instead. Pelosi made a smart political move, getting the alliance of Murtha from gratitude, and Hoyer because she's the boss. Very clever, Pelosi. . . The Republicans chose Trent Lott (R-MS) to be their next senate minority whip. Yes, the same Trent Lott that made the racist comments at Strom Thurmond's 100th Birthday party. Yes, the same Trent Lott that was kicked out of leadership for the same. He's back with the same weird hair.

EDITORIAL:
YUCK!!!!!

Thompson Starts Exploratory Committee

11.15.06

Way back in February when I started the blog, I singled out Tommy Thompson as the dark horse to watch. He's got a lot of experience and he's from a good state. I put him at 4th. Now things are different. Romney is serious, and so is Giuliani. Gingrich came out of no where. Two weeks after this Frist will drop out. However, I'd still put him at fifth or sixth. I'll put up full rankings a little later, as well as a poll. Ron Gunzberger of Politics1.com isn't nuts about his chances, but ovaloffice2008.com ranks him at 6. Gingrich is #4, so he comes in at 5 or 6. Overall chances of getting the nomination: maybe 4 or 5 %, but that's better than a bunch of others: Tancredo, Hunter, and Pataki to name a few, and arguably Sam Brownback. It doesn't really matter.

McCain Sets Up Exploratory Committee

11.13.06

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) confirmed on TV that he would set up his exploratory committee. No surprise here.

Mehlman Quits, Bush Picks Martinez

11. 13.06

RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman resigned his position after losing both houses of congress and being outed as gay (Melhman led the fight against gay rights). President Bush picked Florida Senator and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Mel Martinez. Clearly, even after Hispanic voters turned out in droves for democrats in 2006, the Republican party still thinks it can win their votes.

Giuliani Starts Exploratory Committee

11.14.06

Rudy Giuliani, expected by many to pass on this race and accept the vice-presidential slot, filed his exploratory committee. Although many still insist he will decide against a run, a McCain-Romney-Giuliani (and possibly)-Gingrich fight would turn very nasty, as all are so vulnerable to attack by the base.

Vilsack Announces

11.8.06
The almost completely unknown Governor Tom Vilsack (D-IA) announced the day after the midterm elections that he will be a candidate for president in 2008. Although he may seem to be a major contender as Iowa has the first caucuses, he scores a meager 10% in most polls. For now, assume he does okay in Iowa and then disappears completely in New Hampshire.

Duncan Hunter Announces. Nobody Cares.

10.29.06
Duncan Hunter announced he was running for president. He was then the House Armed Services Committee Chair. Now he is the Ranking Minority member. It doesn't matter. After serving 14 terms in congress, nobody has ever heard of him. Expect him to have an impact of exactly zero on the primary: assuming he doesn't do the smart thing and just pull the plug.

Feingold Drops Out

To the dismay of many liberal bloggers, Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) announced that he will not seek the presidency. An outspoken liberal voice in the senate, Feingold wanted to be a part of the new democratic majority. It would always have been an uphill battle, and his entry would have set the blogosphere on fire: right underneath Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Warner Drops Out - Two Months Ago

Hi yall. On October 12th Mark Warner announced that he will not be a candidate for president in 2008. In protest, (but mainly to follow the midterms) I abandoned the blog for two months. Coming back, so much has happened. The fields have shifted. I will try to recreate what has happened. I've got a lot of work. But first . . .

THE DEMOCRATS RETOOK CONGRESS!
6 SENATE SEATS
30 HOUSE SEATS
6 GOVERNORSHIPS
THE MAJORITY OF STATE LEGISLATURES
Sorry. I followed these for 18 months. I knew every candidate in every race, their bios, issue positions, and poll showings in every poll you can think of and a bunch you can't. We did it.

I am not usually partisan like this, but once every ten years or so I have a right to brag.

O'Reilly Behind Romney

In a new development, Fox News host Bill O'Reilly said that Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is his favorite republican against Hillary Clinton in 2008. Although Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are winning in every poll, Romney is positioning himself as the anti-McCain, and it may well pay off. One of the interesting parts of this story is that all the republicans are acting as if Hillary Clinton is definitely going to get the
Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)
nomination. As I have pointed out in the past, she would not be

the strongest candidate. That distinction would fall to Mark Warner or John Edwards. It is quite likely that Clinton will either not run for or not win the nomination, and it is a fascinating tactic on the part of the republicans to pretend that she will definitely win. It is a strange and unusual voter intimidation tactic, because usually parties don't try to mess with the outcome of another party's primary. This suggests that they think that the only Democrat they can beat is Hillary Clinton, and their only hope is to get people who would have voted for Warner or Edwards to stay home. They have also taken it one step further. For months now, conservative pundits have never missed an opportunity to point out that Hillary would be an extremely dangerous opponent. Think what you may, I just don't buy that. If they were so afraid of her they would be discounting her. It's a sign of their fear of the rest of the democratic field that they pretend they don't exist. Get the real article here.

Warner Talks Homeland Security in Las Vegas

Wednesday, Former Governor Mark Warner, Democrat of Virginia, campaigned in Nevada, giving a speech in Las Vegas where he said that the cuts in the city’s homeland security funding was result of, “Misplaced priorities.” He also campaigned for the democratic nominee for governor, Dina Titus. Nevada will have the second caucuses in 2008. Interested? Find out more here.

Warner Gives Interview in Second Life

Mark Warner gave an interview last week on the virtual reality game Second Life. Although some poked fun at his performance, others say it is a good political move, as thousands play second life, and might not have heard of him. Read all about it here.