Vilsack Announces

11.8.06
The almost completely unknown Governor Tom Vilsack (D-IA) announced the day after the midterm elections that he will be a candidate for president in 2008. Although he may seem to be a major contender as Iowa has the first caucuses, he scores a meager 10% in most polls. For now, assume he does okay in Iowa and then disappears completely in New Hampshire.

Duncan Hunter Announces. Nobody Cares.

10.29.06
Duncan Hunter announced he was running for president. He was then the House Armed Services Committee Chair. Now he is the Ranking Minority member. It doesn't matter. After serving 14 terms in congress, nobody has ever heard of him. Expect him to have an impact of exactly zero on the primary: assuming he doesn't do the smart thing and just pull the plug.

Feingold Drops Out

To the dismay of many liberal bloggers, Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) announced that he will not seek the presidency. An outspoken liberal voice in the senate, Feingold wanted to be a part of the new democratic majority. It would always have been an uphill battle, and his entry would have set the blogosphere on fire: right underneath Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Warner Drops Out - Two Months Ago

Hi yall. On October 12th Mark Warner announced that he will not be a candidate for president in 2008. In protest, (but mainly to follow the midterms) I abandoned the blog for two months. Coming back, so much has happened. The fields have shifted. I will try to recreate what has happened. I've got a lot of work. But first . . .

THE DEMOCRATS RETOOK CONGRESS!
6 SENATE SEATS
30 HOUSE SEATS
6 GOVERNORSHIPS
THE MAJORITY OF STATE LEGISLATURES
Sorry. I followed these for 18 months. I knew every candidate in every race, their bios, issue positions, and poll showings in every poll you can think of and a bunch you can't. We did it.

I am not usually partisan like this, but once every ten years or so I have a right to brag.

O'Reilly Behind Romney

In a new development, Fox News host Bill O'Reilly said that Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is his favorite republican against Hillary Clinton in 2008. Although Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are winning in every poll, Romney is positioning himself as the anti-McCain, and it may well pay off. One of the interesting parts of this story is that all the republicans are acting as if Hillary Clinton is definitely going to get the
Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)
nomination. As I have pointed out in the past, she would not be

the strongest candidate. That distinction would fall to Mark Warner or John Edwards. It is quite likely that Clinton will either not run for or not win the nomination, and it is a fascinating tactic on the part of the republicans to pretend that she will definitely win. It is a strange and unusual voter intimidation tactic, because usually parties don't try to mess with the outcome of another party's primary. This suggests that they think that the only Democrat they can beat is Hillary Clinton, and their only hope is to get people who would have voted for Warner or Edwards to stay home. They have also taken it one step further. For months now, conservative pundits have never missed an opportunity to point out that Hillary would be an extremely dangerous opponent. Think what you may, I just don't buy that. If they were so afraid of her they would be discounting her. It's a sign of their fear of the rest of the democratic field that they pretend they don't exist. Get the real article here.

Warner Talks Homeland Security in Las Vegas

Wednesday, Former Governor Mark Warner, Democrat of Virginia, campaigned in Nevada, giving a speech in Las Vegas where he said that the cuts in the city’s homeland security funding was result of, “Misplaced priorities.” He also campaigned for the democratic nominee for governor, Dina Titus. Nevada will have the second caucuses in 2008. Interested? Find out more here.

Warner Gives Interview in Second Life

Mark Warner gave an interview last week on the virtual reality game Second Life. Although some poked fun at his performance, others say it is a good political move, as thousands play second life, and might not have heard of him. Read all about it here.

Richardson Stock Soars

In 1996, three Red Cross workers were kidnapped, and then UN embassador Bill Richardson (D-NM) went and arranged for their release. Ten years later, Richardson (who is now governor of New Mexico and considered to be a likely candidate in 2008) showed that he could still work diplomatic magic. He organized the release of a kidnapped Chicago Tribune reporter. Get the full analysis here.

Huckabee and Falwell

Governor Mike Huckabee, Republican of Arkansas, is emerging as a leading conservative alternative to McCain and Giuliani. A very talented motivational speaker, he has defended Wal-Mart recently, and traveled around promoting his name ID. The Rev. Jerry Falwell, whose University John McCain spoke at a few months ago has just opened a new million square foot church. Huckabee, who used to head the Arkansas Southern Baptist Convention, is going to be a keynote speaker at a convention of pastors Falwell has set up. Huckabee, himself an ordained Baptist minister, will gain a lot of traction, because religious leaders can be a huge influence when it comes to voting. Watch for Huckabee’s poll results to double in the next few months. Read more here.

Bill Clinton Scouting Out Missouri

Former President Bill Clinton is campaigning in Missouri for democratic senate candidate Claire McCaskill. Although he raised over 1 million dollars for McCaskill, many say he is paving the way for Hillary’s potential run in 2008. Get the full story here.

McCain-Lieberman?

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)
It may seem outrageous, but it makes political sense. Joe Lieberman recently lost renomination for his senate seat to Ned Lamont, and he has filed to run as an independent. Despite the fact that most major democrats have endorsed Lamont, Lieberman is leading by large amounts in most polls. For the past ten years, he has voted with the democrats,
1. To get Gore's VP pick in 2000 Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT)
2. To get the Nomination in 2004 (which he didn't)
3. To win renomination in the Senate (which he didn't either)

During these times, he has voted more consistently than he would have liked with the democrats so he could secure these opportunities. If he wins as an Independent (which is very likely) then he will be able to side with the republicans on borderline issues.

If John McCain wins the nomination, he could pick Lieberman as his VP choice because they would be competitive in the East where Bush-Cheney was not, and he would still probably win the South. However, due to the fact that Lieberman has been a Democratic senator for 18 years, it is doubtful that leading republicans would accept the idea. However, if it works...

Rudy and McCain Campaign For Allen's Re-election

Senator George Allen (R-VA) is facing an increasingly competitive challenge for his senate seat from Democrat Jim Webb. President Bush recently traveled to Virginia to campaign for Allen, and John McCain and Rudy Giuliani plan visits later this month. Both recognize the advantage of having a competitor owe him a political favor.

McCain backs Crist for Florida Governor

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) has been traveling around the country supporting weak republicans, and most of them have either already lost, or are probably going to lose. He has picked terrible people to support. His idea is that if he has a nationwide network of republicans who owe their jobs to him, he will have an advantage in 2008. So far, it has been a waste of time. He recently traveled to Florida to support Charlie Crist, the Republican

State Attorney General Charlie Crist (R-FL)

candidate for governor. Crist has been winning by five to ten points in recent polls, proving that McCain is being more cautious. The current governor, Jeb Bush, is retiring, and some pundits are floating the possibility of a McCain-Bush ticket. Although I think it would be a mistake to put a Bush on the ballot, it would win Florida for McCain. You never know....

Dems Preparing For Romney

With Romney taking a surge, the democrats are gearing up for a Romney nomination. The Democratic National Committee has acquired all of the public material on Mitt Romney's record from the state government. This shows that they think Romney has a serious chance, as it is very time consuming to go over such a large record.

Giuliani Running-Says Novak

Conservative columnist Robert Novak, known for his participation in the leaking of CIA agent Valerie Plame's identity, has many confidential sources, and now says that Giuliani will run. Although he has placed first in at least two thirds of Republican primary polls, he has still insisted he is making up his mind. Novak claims, "Republican insiders respond to these numbers by saying rank-and-file GOP voters will abandon Giuliani once they realize his position on abortion, gay rights and gun control. Party strategists calculate that if he actually runs, he must change on at least one of these issues."
New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)
This is not impossible, as "America's Mayor" is now claiming he never supported gay marriage. Novak's Inside Report "confirmed" that Giuliani will try for the nomination. This was, "confirmed by one of the former New York mayor's closest Republican friends. He said Giuliani definitely is running."

Robert Novak

Everyone's Afraid of Romney

Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) appears to be surging. Apparently, the entire field of GOP candidates is afraid of him.

Al Franken has labeled Grover Norquist, the head of Americans for Tax Reform as the most powerful person outside the White House. He wields enormous power in important circles, as every week he organizes a meeting of representatives from all of the conservative interest groups. Under his direction, they can resolve their differences and make alliances. He had this to say about Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney:

"When I talk to each of the presidential candidates, every one of them brings up Romney -- unsolicited -- because they're all focused on him as the smartest, toughest guy in the race,.....He is very well thought of."

It sure seems like Romney is going to be a much bigger factor in this race than was expected.


Grover Norquist

Kerry and Romney Interest Iowa

Senator John Kerry (D-MA)
With Kerry finishing fourth (behind Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, and John Edwards) in polls for the Democratic primary, and still known for his loss to Bush in the 2004 election, his chances do not look good in 2008. However, although he bores supporters in his home state of Massachusetts, Des Moines register pundit David Yepsen reports that his style is "...sharper and more populist" and his speeches have "...more humor than the wonkish dissertations he served up four years ago." The Bush campaign framed Kerry as being a wooden, out-of-the-loop, Massachusetts liberal, and was able to scare Christian evangelicals into voting for Bush. If Kerry can get some of the charisma and humor that made Bush appeal to the average american, than he has a much better chance.

As for Romney, Yepsen reported that a Republican activist compared him to Reagan. Although Romney is under fire in his home state for the Big Dig fiasco, the Iowa Reagan comparison should be taken seriously. First of all, Many republicans idolize Reagan, and think of him as the ideal president. For an activist who really knows to make this comparison means that Romney probably will do better than his single digit polling results suggest.

Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) David Yepsen

Hillary Clinton Information

Senator Hillary Clinton (D-New York/Arkansas)

Interest Group Ratings:
http://www.vote-smart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=WNY99268

Voting Record:
http://www.vote-smart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=WNY99268

Campaign Finance:
http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.asp?cid=N00000019

Issue Positions:
http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Hillary_Clinton.htm

Biography:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton

John McCain Info

I have been requested to include more information on the likely candidates. So here are links to where you can get more in-depth information.

Senator John McCain (R-Arizona)

Interest Group Ratings:
http://www.vote-smart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=S0061103

Voting Record:
http://www.vote-smart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=S0061103

Campaign Finance:
http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.asp?cid=N00006424

Issue Positions:
http://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/John_McCain.htm

Biography:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_mccain

McCain's Problems

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)
The only reason that this election is competitive is that John McCain's web of power is full of holes. He may look like a moderate unbeatable maverick, but he's not. The whole strategy relies on convincing one group to believe one thing about him, and another to think differently. That might work in a vacuum, but in actual practice, it won't. This is because he relies on the moderates thinking he's an independent, while having the arch-conservatives thinking he's one of them. This presents a problem. GOP activists don't just watch him when he's talking to them. They follow his every move. If you pay attention, it's clear he's trying to have it both ways: be a maverick and be a Bush supporter.
In court if you contradict yourself, the jury has the right to disregard everything else you say. That explains that when the people who wind up making a difference (the interest groups and party activists) do not believe his sincerity when he speaks at Falwell's university, because they know that next week he will sponsor legislation they don't like. The people who are paying attention interact with people who aren't, the message finds the right people and "tips" and soon everybody knows about it. See Malcolm Gladwell's ingenius book The Tipping Point. A recent article from the Concord Monitor showed how leaders of the Christian Coalition and Gun Rights organizations in New Hampshire just don't buy it when McCain flips back and forth. Now he can pick and choose his TV spots, but when the national spotlight shines on his web full 'o' holes, he is going to pay big time.

Mark Warner Is Amazing

Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, who made millions in the cellphone industry by co-founding Nextel, knows the value of technology. I recently discovered his video podcast, and I must share how inspired I was. His critics say he has no charisma, but he is one of the most passionate public speakers I have ever seen, and I have deeply researched linguistics and political rhetoric. He has a great stump speech, rivalling John Edwards's brilliant "Two Americas". Here are some of his accolades and credits:

1. First in his family to attend college
2. When he first ran for governor, everybody said it couldn't be done. Warner united Democrats, Independents, and Republicans and won.
3. He knows how to connect with Joe Schmo living in Kansas (his campaign sponsored a NASCAR racecar)
4. Has a good record with minorities.
5. Governing rated Virginia as the best managed state in the nation.
6. In four years, 136,000 more children have health insurance.
7. 35,000 students earned G.E.D.s.
8. Time Magazine put him in the best Five Governors
9. He closed 6 billion dollars in budget shortfalls.
10. Under his supervision, 260 rivers and streams were cleaned.
11. 52% more public schools accredited.
12. Virginia is #1 in water quality standards.
13. Cut food tax.
14. 122,000 new jobs in four years.
15. Virginia had the nation's largest increase in Math SAT scores
16. He was the chairman of the national governor's asociation.
17. Governing Magazine rated him the "Top Public Official"
18. He started the ForwardTogether PAC, which has raised millions for progressive candidates nationwide.

When you put these together, he seems like the ideal candidate. However, despite the advantages of putting him with Evan Bayh, he will probably nee someone with foreign policy experience. I would bet on Hispanic Gov. Bill Richardson (D) NM or Hillary Clinton to be his running mate.

Giuliani labeled "GOP Wild Card"

Rudy Giuliani is not your average politician. He has earned the nickname "America's Mayor" for his effective and decisive leadership after the 9/11 attacks. However, his liberal views on abortion, gay marriage, and gun control, combined with his morally questionable divorce while mayor may enrage the party's social conservatives. However, he has a reputation with the american public as a leader and a hero. By the time the primaries come around, we could very well still be in Iraq, have troops in Iran and Lebanon, and be engaged in nuclear talks with North Korea. People will want someone who they know is a leader. It comes down to how much of a mess the world is in. Thus, we have a GOP Wild Card.
Former Mayor of New York City Rudy Giuliani

Huntsman Backs McCain

The most popular governor in the nation, Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT), had previously supported fellow mormon Mitt Romney for president in 2008. He recently changed his choice to Senator John McCain. This has his ups and downs, as Utah does not have an early primary, and many evangelicals label the mormon religion as a cult. However, It does give McCain a small boost in the moderate segment of the GOP field.

Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT)

Murdoch changes his mind about Hillary

A few months ago, News Corp. Owner Rupert Murdoch startled everybody by hosting a Hillary Clinton fundraiser. However, when recently asked by Charlie Rose who he would support in a Hillary v. McCain contest, he said that he would "probably support McCain. If it was happening today, I think so." Hillary can say goodbye to that advantage.


Ruper Murdoch

GEORGE ALLEN UPDATE

I'm sorry I haven't updated in a month. I've been busy. Due to polls and developments, I have briefly changed the rankings.

REPUBLICAN #1
SEN. JOHN McCAIN

REPUBLICAN #2
FORMER NEW YORK CITY MAYOR RUDY GIULIANI

REPUBLICAN #3
FORMER HOUSE SPEAKER NEWT GINGRICH

REPUBLICAN #4
SEN. GEORGE ALLEN

REPUBLICAN #5
SEN. BILL FRIST

------------------------------------------------
DEMOCRAT #1
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON

DEMOCRAT #2
FORMER GOV. MARK WARNER

DEMOCRAT #3
FORMER VP AL GORE

DEMOCRAT #4
FORMER SEN. JOHN EDWARDS

DEMOCRAT #5
GOV. BILL RICHARDSON